UK government sources have set the chances of a Brexit deal not exceeding 50% as Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen prepare to open direct talks after their talks failed to reach an agreement in London.
Leaving King’s Cross for Brussels on Saturday morning, EU chief of staff Michel Barnier told reporters: “We remain calm, as usual, and if there is still a way, we will see.”
Will The Deadlock Break?
The president of the European Commission and the UK prime minister, who is in Checkers, are expected to speak by telephone this afternoon. EU sources say that talks have reached a major political decision on the three issues involved: fishing, fair competition and conflict resolution.
All sections of this agreement, which are expected to cover more than 600 pages, are correct, understandable.
Negotiations were expected to end with mediation between the two political leaders, but there is no guarantee that an acceptable way forward will be found.
Should these leaders give their negotiators additional instructions, much work will be completed on a possible agreement when EU ambassadors to Brussels and the Westminster cabinet review the policies on Sunday, but the timeline could go in the first half of the week.
Johnson and von der Leyen will discuss how to incorporate pink into their red lines to find a common ground in the provision of “level play field” and appropriate access to EU fishing vessels in British waters by the end of the year.
EU sources have denied claims from Downing Street that a ten-year demand for a change in the introduction of European fishing vessels was a major obstacle to the agreement. “The UK wants a short change, we have asked for a longer one. There is a middle ground, and that is not the cause of the problem, ”said the source.
The most significant difficulty is related to the EU’s need to ensure that the UK will not be able to divert trade in subsidized funds or by reducing environmental, labor and social standards.
The Negotiations
Methods of providing such guarantees, in addition to halting the implementation of private policies at Whitehall, have intensified discussions since the beginning.
EU sources said London had not even approved a “no-return” rule at the same levels at the end of the transition period yet, due to differences in definition and conflict resolution equipment.
The biggest bone of contention on the UK side is Brussels’ goal of exempting all EU funds from future state aid laws, an action proposed by one of Britain’s deputy negotiators in recent weeks but still to be resolved.
In a joint statement Friday evening, the UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, and Barnier said they had not been able to address the final issues and that historical trade and security talks would be suspended.
“After a week of intense negotiations in London, the two main negotiations agreed today that the terms of the agreement are not met, due to significant variations in the same role, management and fishing,” Barnier and Frost said in a statement.
“For this reason, they have agreed to suspend negotiations to inform their principals of the status of the negotiations. President von der Leyen and Prime Minister Johnson will discuss the situation tomorrow afternoon. ”
Von der Leyen, the former German defense minister, has been secretly criticized by foreign diplomats for his efforts to seek a treaty with the UK. It is feared in some EU major councils that, like German chancellor Angela Merkel, the intention is to get an agreement at any price, as explained by one EU official in Brussels.
A spokeswoman for Merkel urged both parties on Friday to look to their red flags to strike a deal, and the French government said it could use its veto if the agreement failed to meet expectations.
Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert said: “For the chancellor, and that has not changed in recent weeks, the willingness to compromise is needed on both sides.
