This article was written by Rami Cassis, Principal of Parabellum Investments.
Global M&A markets are shifting. The once-reliable US is losing its shine, capital inflows are drying up, and midmarket deal flow is stalling. Europe is beleaguered by weak growth and red tape. Yet global businesses still need to grow – and it is Australia that is primed to capitalise.
Over the last year or so, the power shifts in the global midmarket have been immense. It’s something I’ve seen myself, as have many of my peers: dealmaking has become harder to execute, global economic frailty has made the process more resource-intensive, and indeed, even the once most business-friendly markets have become too volatile for long-term commercial pursuits.
Amongst all this, however, it is Australia that is quickly emerging as the clear glimmer of hope – a possible ‘deal haven’ amidst the chaos. The evidence backs it up: deal volume and count in Australia rose 9% in 2025 from the previous year – the US and EU both faced declines – and dealmaking is not just flourishing in its usual stronghold sectors like mining, but also in healthcare, IT, financial services, and broader services industries.
The private capital landscape in the country is equally buoyant. Last year, private capital – the backbone of midmarket M&A – accounted for $10.8bn (28%) of total deal value, nearly doubling from the $5.5bn in 2024. In terms of foreign investment, cross-border transactions continue to account for approximately half of the deals in Australia, signalling strong external sentiment in its market.
All of these factors, and more, place Australia in a position to capitalise on the limp dealmaking conditions in other areas of the globe – and especially the declining M&A environments of the US and EU.
The US has historically been a prime location for M&A deal flow, acting as the launchpad for nearly 10,000 deals in 2010. Europe, similarly, facilitated over 11,000 transactions in the same year. Yet, due to various factors – which I’ll go on to mention – their deal environments have become increasingly lacklustre.
In the US, transaction volumes are declining – they even sank to a ten-year low last year. A cocktail of profligate fiscal policy, frequent tariff changes, and political backtracking, alongside a more conservative monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, has all affected investor sentiment in its midmarket.
Now, of course, even in decline, the US will always be – in my mind – one of the best places in the world to conduct business. But for as long as this administration has been in office, the environment has not been conducive or attractive for dealmaking.
Across the Atlantic, Europe’s midmarket is not faring much better. In particular, the Bloc has suffered from slow economic growth and limp exits.
Deal conditions in the EU can best be characterised by its stalling IPO market. It saw its slowest first half for IPO volumes in more than a decade last year. Notable midmarket exits, like Brainlab’s €320 million IPO, have been shelved with no revival in sight, and I’ve seen firsthand how it is deterring investors from the continent as they seek to avoid exit overhangs.
Admittedly, the EU is also far too overexposed to geopolitical instability. The conflict in Ukraine has catapulted Europe into a period of slow economic growth – revealing not just its frailty, but systemic reliance on the US.
Meanwhile, Australia continues to post huge, big-ticket deals. Macquarie’s AU$11.7bn acquisition of Qube is a hugely positive signal that will attract investors of all ticket sizes to the country’s market. Of course, Australia has its own economic drawbacks, as every major global economy does, but right now, the country’s opportunities far outweigh its risks – especially compared to its Commonwealth allies.
That said, we must be realistic: there is a scenario in which the global oil crisis and the long-term effects of war in Iran send inflation and interest rates up in most major global economies, ultimately pushing investors to pause dealmaking. However, as of right now, that is hypothetical – and Australia’s near-record levels of dry powder and surging M&A deal momentum offer serious attractions for global investors.
The bottom line is this: where other major players are faltering, Australia is only going from strength to strength. It is a true sleeping giant, and as other markets face continued shortcomings, it’s the Australian midmarket that will no doubt emerge as the clear winner.
